Seamless vs. Welded Pipes – A “Tale of Two Cities”; Dual‑Carbon Policy Drives Deep Industry Differentiation

As detailed national implementation rules for the dual‑carbon (carbon peaking and carbon neutrality) goals are rolled out, the steel pipe industry is undergoing a structural reshuffle. The two core product categories—seamless pipes and welded pipes—are being pushed onto distinctly different development tracks.

Seamless pipes are mired in “high‑carbon cost” quicksand. Domestically produced seamless pipes mainly rely on the blast furnace‑converter steelmaking route, with carbon dioxide emissions of 2.1 tonnes per tonne of steel. After the dual‑carbon rules took effect, carbon‑related costs now account for 15% of the total comprehensive production cost of seamless pipes. With the formal launch of the CBAM carbon tariff, export costs for high‑carbon pipes have surged by 23%–35%, and overseas orders are shifting to lower‑carbon production regions. Industry insiders predict that about 30% of existing medium‑ and small‑sized seamless pipe capacity will gradually exit the market because operators cannot afford the cost of low‑carbon retrofitting.

Welded pipes, by contrast, benefit from the “electric arc furnace + cold‑rolled substrate” short‑process route, with carbon emission intensity only one‑third that of seamless pipes. The explosive growth of the new energy sector continues to amplify the market value of low‑carbon welded pipes. In emerging fields such as photovoltaic brackets, wind‑tower supporting pipes, and new energy vehicle structural parts, end‑brand owners are increasingly requiring suppliers to provide low‑carbon certification. Pipes with low‑carbon certification can command a “green premium” of 8%–12%. Market estimates suggest that before 2027, China will see investment in 200 new hydrogen‑ready welded pipe production lines.